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Will post-pandemic travel prices be higher or lower?

It’s a common question: since nobody is traveling, will prices be higher or lower post-pandemic?  There must be some great deals out there, right?

Well, not necessarily.

If you’re fully vaccinated, the recently announced summer 2021 cruises that are homeported “just outside” the USA (departing from the Bahamas, Bermuda, or Caribbean islands) or in countries like Greece, Cyprus, Iceland or Israel may be a great option.

But if you’re looking to travel nearby or last minute (see our recent blog post), you may find availability already limited, which means prices are trending up.

Increased demand, reduced supply in travel

For late 2021 and all of 2022, we’re seeing the “perfect storm” of increased demand and reduced supply in many travel categories:  (Here are ten trends we’re seeing for travel in 2022).

• Travelers had to cancel their plans for 2020 and much of 2021. Demand for up to 3 years is being “squeezed” into the latter part of 2021 and all of 2022.
• On the supply side, during the pandemic, airlines parked or decommissioned part of their fleet. For example, British Airways retired all its 747s. Carriers also furloughed or let go of tens of thousands of staff members, which means they can’t gear up very quickly.
• In the cruise industry, lines like Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Holland America and Princess sold or retired some of their ships and thus reduced capacity.
• The pandemic delayed the construction of new ships and hotel properties that were scheduled to come online in 2020 or 2021.
• Capacity at ships and hotels may be more limited to allow for social distancing.
• Many travelers received future cruise credits when 2020 or 2021 travel plans were “paused”, and rebooked when their initial travel plans were disrupted. That reduces availability for future dates.

Should I book my 2022 vacation now or wait?

Don’t procrastinate. Especially if you’re looking for a more unique experience, it pays to start planning now.  Rare travel experiences that are even more limited in availability than usual include:

• One-off cruise itineraries or destinations
• Small ship cruises
• Boutique hotels
• Safari lodges
• Top suites on ships or in hotels
• Connecting rooms for families
• Private villas or apartments
• River cruises
• Private yacht charters
• Premium airline seats
• Travel during festive season and other popular travel dates

If you’re very flexible, and don’t really care too much about the room you’re in or the itinerary you’re on, and you like to “wing it”, yes, you could wait a bit.  But why would you?

Should I wait to see if better promotions will come out for 2022?

No. In many cases, 2022 cruise and airfares are already higher than pre-pandemic fares. We are seeing fewer upgrade and other promotions for next year. Assuming demand remains as robust as it currently is, that will remain the case.

Our recommendation is that, if you have your mind set on a specific trip, we start planning now.  (Just call your Q Travel Advisor.)  That way you have your vacation to look forward to, at a rate you’re comfortable with. And if fares do drop, we’ll adjust it if travel partners allow.

Will I get my money back if I cancel my vacation?

If you book now, you’ll may benefit from flexible “book with confidence policies” offered by many travel providers (cruise lines, tour operators, etc.)  For example, certain cruise lines will allow you to cancel as little as 30 days before a scheduled departure, and instead of keeping your money as a penalty, they will apply your payments towards a future vacation. Those policies will become stricter again as travel rebounds.

Further questions?

Call your Q Cruise + Travel Travel Advisor.